Session V:
Assimilation of geodetic date and seismic activity data into simukation models

2nd ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) Workshop in Japan



Prospects for Predicting Energy Flow Released by Local Earthquakes
Taras Verbytskyj, Yurij Verbytskyj


Abstract

Regression method has been applied to design multi dimensional nonlinear statistical model of seismic energy flow release by local earthquakes using the data of integrated geophysical monitoring in the Transcarpathian seismogenic zone, Ukraine, as input. It has been shown that to obtain adequate model it is necessary to utilize temporal series of geophysical parameters that are not less than 730 days long. Since variations of seismic energy flow lag behind variations of input geophysical parameters, model is capable to predict time of anomalous growth of local seismicity for 2 to 3 months in advance. Retrospective testing confirmed that ability.

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