Session II:
Scaling physics and emergent behaviors at the micro and macro-scale : theory, simulation and observation

2nd ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) Workshop in Japan



Critical sensitivity and fluctuations in catastrophic rupture
Meng-Fen Xia, Yu-Jie Wei, Fu-Jie Ke, Yi-Long Bai


Abstract

Rupture of heterogeneous crust appears to be a sudden transition. Since its sensitivity to heterogeneity and stress transfer in different scales play a fundamental role in evolution, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture is uncertain. This seems to be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. We currently found that critical sensitivity is a common feature near the transition to rupture in evolution induced catastrophe (EIC). Such a feature can be adopted as a precursor of catastrophic rupture. In fact, this provides the mechanism underlying a promising method (load and unload response ratio ? LURR) in earthquake forecasting.

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